The Golden Globes are often seen as the more fun awards show, but essentially meaningless when it comes to predicting who will win at the Academy Awards. However, they can work to encourage an Academy member to pick up a screener that they have been ignoring up until that point. The ceremonies biggest upset was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s win in Best Supporting Actor for Nocturnal Animals beating out the favorite Mahershala Ali for Moonlight. I would not count on Taylor-Johnson even receiving a nomination at the Oscars, but it could generate enough interest to land director and writer Tom Ford a screenwriting nomination that seemed just out of reach a couple of weeks ago. An upset that could definitely affect the race is Isabelle Huppert’s surprising Best Actress win for French film, Elle. Long considered one of the best films of the year, it was somehow snubbed by the The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ Phase One and Executive Committees’ shortlist of nominations, despite its reputation and Huppert winning awards from the New York and Los Angeles critic’s groups. The Academy will most likely try to remedy this slight by nominating Huppert for Best Actress.
The biggest story of the night was the record breaking sweep by La La Land. It picked up surprising wins for Best Screenplay and Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, in addition to expected wins in Best Comedy/Musical, Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical, Best Director, Best Song and Best Score. It has been long thought that the Academy would spread the love amongst the favorites by awarding Barry Jenkins Best Director for Moonlight, Kenneth Lonergan Best Screenplay for Manchester by the Sea, Natalie Portman Best Actress for Jackie, Casey Affleck Best Actor for Manchester by the Sea, and, finally, La La Land Best Picture, along with its wins in the musical categories. But, if the Academy is as taken with La La Land as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was, all of those supposed locks are in question. Jackie has proven to be very divisive amongst voters, giving Emma Stone an edge over Portman. I would still expect Lonergan to take Best Screenplay, but Director will most likely go to Chazelle over Jenkins, despite Jenkins’ winning more awards from the critic’s circuit. Casey Affleck is still the favorite to win Best Actor, but after a very touching speech from Ryan Gosling after his win in Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, coupled with the sexual assault allegations aimed at Affleck, the Academy may choose to keep their conscience clean and go with Gosling.
While the Golden Globes are the most talked about by the general public, the Directors Guild and Producers Guild announced their nominations recently. Those groups have many more members that overlap with the Academy than the HFPA, making them a better indicator of how the Academy will vote. The Director’s Guild nominated Lion’s Garth Davis for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in First-Time Feature Film which could boost him to a nomination. The PGAs have predicted eight of the last nine Best Picture winners. They are announced January 28th, just days before the Academy begins casting their final votes and only two days before the Oscars announce their nominations on the 24th. I would expect their nominations to line up with the PGA’s minus the nomination for Deadpool. The Academy may be making an effort to be more culturally relevant, but they’re still not cool enough to nominate a raunchy superhero movie for Best Picture.
La La Land
Hell or High Water
Manchester by the Sea
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Emma Stone – La La Land
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Isabelle Hupert – Elle
Amy Adams – Arrival
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington – Fences
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Best Supporting Actress:
Viola Davis – Fences
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
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Chandler Ferrebee is an aspiring filmmaker and program support intern at Light House Studio.