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Jan17

Post Golden Globes Oscar Predictions

The Golden Globes are often seen as the more fun awards show, but essentially meaningless when it comes to predicting who will win at the Academy Awards. However, they can work to encourage an Academy member to pick up a screener that they have been ignoring up until that point. The ceremonies biggest upset was Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s win in Best Supporting Actor for Nocturnal Animals beating out the favorite Mahershala Ali for Moonlight. I would not count on Taylor-Johnson even receiving a nomination at the Oscars, but it could generate enough interest to land director and writer Tom Ford a screenwriting nomination that seemed just out of reach a couple of weeks ago. An upset that could definitely affect the race is Isabelle Huppert’s surprising Best Actress win for French film, Elle.   Long considered one of the best films of the year, it was somehow snubbed by the The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ Phase One and Executive Committees’ shortlist of nominations, despite its reputation and Huppert winning awards from the New York and Los Angeles critic’s groups. The Academy will most likely try to remedy this slight by nominating Huppert for Best Actress.

The biggest story of the night was the record breaking sweep by La La Land. It picked up surprising wins for Best Screenplay and Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, in addition to expected wins in Best Comedy/Musical, Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical, Best Director, Best Song and Best Score. It has been long thought that the Academy would spread the love amongst the favorites by awarding Barry Jenkins Best Director for Moonlight, Kenneth Lonergan Best Screenplay for Manchester by the Sea, Natalie Portman Best Actress for Jackie, Casey Affleck Best Actor for Manchester by the Sea, and, finally, La La Land Best Picture, along with its wins in the musical categories. But, if the Academy is as taken with La La Land as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association was, all of those supposed locks are in question. Jackie has proven to be very divisive amongst voters, giving Emma Stone an edge over Portman. I would still expect Lonergan to take Best Screenplay, but Director will most likely go to Chazelle over Jenkins, despite Jenkins’ winning more awards from the critic’s circuit. Casey Affleck is still the favorite to win Best Actor, but after a very touching speech from Ryan Gosling after his win in Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, coupled with the sexual assault allegations aimed at Affleck, the Academy may choose to keep their conscience clean and go with Gosling. 

While the Golden Globes are the most talked about by the general public, the Directors Guild and Producers Guild announced their nominations recently. Those groups have many more members that overlap with the Academy than the HFPA, making them a better indicator of how the Academy will vote. The Director’s Guild nominated Lion’s Garth Davis for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in First-Time Feature Film which could boost him to a nomination. The PGAs have predicted eight of the last nine Best Picture winners. They are announced January 28th, just days before the Academy begins casting their final votes and only two days before the Oscars announce their nominations on the 24th. I would expect their nominations to line up with the PGA’s minus the nomination for Deadpool. The Academy may be making an effort to be more culturally relevant, but they’re still not cool enough to nominate a raunchy superhero movie for Best Picture.

 

Final Predictions

 

Best Picture:

La La Land

Moonlight

Hell or High Water

Hacksaw Ridge

Manchester by the Sea

Fences

Hidden Figures

Arrival

 

Best Director:

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival 

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

 

Best Actress:

Emma Stone – La La Land

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Isabelle Hupert – Elle

Amy Adams – Arrival 

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

 

Best Actor:

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington – Fences

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

 

Best Supporting Actress:

Viola Davis – Fences

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

 

Best Supporting Actor:

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel – Lion

Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins

 

Have you been keeping up with this season’s Oscar contenders? Have you ever wanted to write a review yourself? Send an email to amanda@lighthousestudio.org, if you are interested in becoming a Student Critic. 

Chandler Ferrebee is an aspiring filmmaker and program support intern at Light House Studio.

1 Comment

  1. […] on February 26th. They announced their nominations earlier this month and, I am proud to say, I accurately predicted 31 out of 34 nominations in the categories that I looked at. Some surprises were Lion scoring a Best Picture nod, the much […]

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